Painful, but not fatal
As published originally at http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2010/10/defence_review, Oct 19th 2010, 18:36 by M.S. | LONDON
“PAIN all around, but nothing fatal” appears to have been the guiding principle of Britain’s strategic defence and security review (SDSR), the results of which were announced by David Cameron today. The budget cuts – 8{33979494efa9b9c28f844b5c37a1ddedf4bb90a2eb3dac7a83ede58b7eac2e67} in real terms over the next four years – were not as swingeing as they might have been nor nearly as deep as the Treasury was hoping for. But the cash squeeze is nevertheless intense.
There were several reasons why Mr Cameron decided at the last moment to tell the Treasury to back off. Chief among them: a doughty rearguard action fought (at some personal political risk) by the defence secretary, Liam Fox; the persistent demands of the campaign in Afghanistan; pressure from the Americans not to go too far; and the sheer riskiness of abandoning important capabilities in an uncertain world. The scope for radical cuts, Mr Cameron wisely concluded, was severely limited.
The headlines are that the army will eventually shrink to 95,500 soldiers from today’s 102,500 while losing about half its heavy armour and artillery, most of which is in Germany, still awaiting the Soviet armies that never came. It will be able to sustain a 7,000-strong brigade permanently in the field, significantly less than the 9,500 soldiers currently deployed in Afghanistan. But that brigade will, however, be better protected and more mobile, with new medium-armoured vehicles and more helicopters.
The navy and the air force will also see manpower reductions – about 5,000 in each case. Most controversially, the navy will get its two new aircraft carriers, since cancelling one or both would have cost more than completing them, although its fleet of destroyers and frigates will shrink from 23 to 19. The first of the carriers will carry only helicopters and will be held in reserve once the second becomes available in 2020. It may even be sold, or shared with the French.
That second carrier will be fitted with catapults and arrestor hooks, which the previous government astonishingly deemed unnecessary. The original plan was to outfit the ships with jump-jet versions of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, but the new arrangements will allow the carrier to field a cheaper and more capable version that takes off and lands in the traditional way. It will also be able to host the planes of Britain’s French and American allies. In the meantime, though the government has decided to scrap the existing, modest, carrier strike capacity by taking HMS Ark Royal, the Navy’s flagship, out of service, along with its Harrier aircraft. That will leave a gap in carrier strike capability lasting ten years.
The Harriers will be sent to the knacker’s yard prematurely because Dr Fox has granted a reprieve the Tornado ground attack fleet, which many had expected to be quickly retired, because of its greater usefulness in Afghanistan. By 2020, however, the air force should be down to just two types of fast jet, the JSF and Eurofighter Typhoon.
Sensibly, by keeping the existing fleet of four nuclear-armed submarines going for a bit longer – the oldest will now come out of service in 2028 – the decision to start building their replacemnts can be put off until 2016, saving a useful £1.2 billion. Some will suspect, probably wrongly, that the main reason for delaying was to pander to the Liberal Democrats, who are rather less keen on maintaining Britain’s nuclear missiles than their Tory coalition partners.
The review was not entirely a tale of cutbacks and woe. Some areas will actually get more money. Britain’s special forces, which are much-valued by the Americans, will get a boost from better kit, while £500m has been earmarked to beef up defences against computer attacks. With international terrorism still identified as the most immediate threat to the country’s security, the intelligence and security services, which have seen their budgets tripled in recent years, will only have to make small “efficiency” economies.
There is plenty for critics of this hastily-conducted, financially-driven SDSR to snipe at. In particular, building a second carrier when the navy desperately needs smaller surface ships to patrol the sea lanes looks lopsided. But frigates can be easily built at a later date if they are needed, whereas the carriers are a once in 50 years decision. There is also a lot of detail still to come, because the agreements reached are only partial. But the government has made a goodish fist of a rotten hand. Britain will still have the fourth biggest defence budget in the world and in will be one of the few NATO countries to meet the alliance’s target of spending 2{33979494efa9b9c28f844b5c37a1ddedf4bb90a2eb3dac7a83ede58b7eac2e67} of its GDP on defence. Critically, Mr Cameron promised that military spending should start to grow again in real terms after 2015. Britain may not be quite so willing to throw itself into every fight going as it has been in the recent past, but this SDSR should be seen more as a tactical retreat than a surrender.